Limited impact expected from the Moody’s China and HK credit rating cuts:Limited short term impact,but could be negative for mid-long term

关于我们,After cutting the outlook to negative in March 2016, Moody’s cut China’s
credit rating from Aa3 to A1 on May 23rd, citing rising debt combining
with slowing potential growth as the main factors; first credit rating
cut by Moody’s since 1989.

    26 government related issuers (GRI) and non-financial corporations
also had credit ratings downgraded following sovereign rating cut.

    Hong Kong’s credit rating was also cut on May 24th from Aa1 to Aa2,
the first time Moody’s cut Hong Kong’s credit rating since initiating in
2004, due to tightening financial ties raising the risk of contagion.

    Short term impact limited: 1) Moody’s credit rating is followed more
closely by foreign investors rather than Chinese investors who hold most
of the bond market, 2) Impact of announcement on bond yields was very
short lived, and consequently also limits spillover to real economy.

    Credit rating or outlook downgrades have often translated to rising
yields, but impact on China is comparatively smaller as foreign holdings
of bonds are very small: just 4% in China, compared to ~10% in Japan and
Korea, 38% in India, and 44% in the US.


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